Outmanned, Outnumbered, Out Planned
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| A rather apocalyptic A.I. generated picture of voting last night |
Right Hand Man - Hamilton (The Musical)
As I'm sure you all are aware, even my friends from other countries that read this blog, America, specifically Iowa, was starting the process of electing the next president. We use a system that might be called antiquated, and possibly needs a fresh coat of polish and is largely misunderstood, to poll our residents on whom our appointed electors should vote for at the next National Convention held by each political party. It is called a caucus.
Both of the two major parties held their caucus last night. The Democrats just met to elect chairs for the next election after this one as well as various stages of our process leading up to and including the Democratic Convention. They used to poll themselves too but found themselves in trouble with the national press during the last election cycle and were removed from their first in the nation status. They are still voting by mail in preference ballot from now until mid-February with their results not being released until March.
The Republicans side however, don't use the same Democrat complicated system of multi level preferences and instead just vote by a simple secret ballot of your top preference. They haven't been banned from their first in the nation status and so carried on last night and the results, which I haven't seen in detail (more on that later), have long been released and are probably headlines on every news site this morning, being analyzed to death.
I consider myself an Independent since I side with both parties on a number of issues. But as an Independent, I had no ability to caucus or steer my future in selecting a party candidate to run for president. So perhaps twenty years ago or so, I changed my party affiliation to Republican, simply because I felt it was the easier party to steer in my direction and I liked their system of caucus much better than the Democrats for a number of reasons much too long to explain for this post. So last night, as a RINO (slang term used by other Republicans for those of us who are Republican In Name Only), I took part in the Republican Iowa Caucus.
Unlike voting for president, where I typically vote a candidate that I agree largely with, my agenda for caucus night was different. There wasn't a single Republican candidate that I felt I could say this about. I definitely didn't want to vote for former President Trump because just typing his title in a respectful manner is giving the man more respect than he deserves for the disrespectful way he ran his office when President. DeSantis didn't seem much better and has a track record of also using his political office in a vindictive manner against those whom disagree with him. Haley, while she has some independent streaks about her, was quick to be a "Yesman" for Trump when he was in office, until she fell out of favor. There was another guy, whose name I have a hard time pronouncing, with Indian ancestry, that spouted one wild conspiracy theory after another. Finally there was another guy, who just a couple weeks ago was the first time I ever heard an ad from him, that absolutely has no other platform other than he wants to unite the country. Those were my choices. I decided to vote for the person whom I felt had the best chance (which isn't much of a chance) of beating Trump at National Convention and so voted for Nikki Haley.
I had hoped that the recent snow (more snow than we typically get in an average year and more snow than we have received in the last three years) and the extreme cold (coldest caucus in our state history by a LOT) would keep people home but as drove up to the parking lots of the high school where it is held, they were packed. Later I would learn that while not record setting like the 2016 caucus, it was fairly close to that same amount, meaning a much larger caucus than normal. I knew at that point that Trump was definitely going to carry the night but I continued on.
After checking in to our precinct, we go to a large auditorium where current office holders, our state Senator and Representative along with a proxy for National Representative all gave speeches. Then a proxy for each of the candidates mentioned above also gave speeches about why you should vote for their candidate. After 45 minutes when they were over, we all went to different rooms of the school building to do our business and take the poll. When I arrived and sat down, I pulled out my phone and happen to notice that the Iowa Republican Caucus had already been called for Trump. WTH? Nobody in my precinct had even voted yet at this point.
My precinct, as normal, is highly dysfunctional. The precinct captain is an extremely disorganized and soft spoken woman. It took her 20 minutes of running around to get her shit together and by that time, many of the other precincts were already done and walking out the door, right by where my precinct meets. Finally, after 20 minutes of waiting, our secret ballots were handed out and I could vote. After that, the soft spoken precinct captain started asking for various volunteers for all the previously mentioned committees and political stages and wasn't getting any volunteers because nobody could hear a single word she said. Finally a fellow took pity on her and started repeating everything she said at a louder level that could be heard. By the time our precinct wrapped up and our results tallied 47 votes for Trump, 17 for Haley, 14 for DeSantis, 1 for the conspiracist with Indian ancestry and 1 for the other guy I hadn't heard of until a couple weeks ago, we were one of the last precincts reporting for our county.
In conclusion, I knew going into this that Trump would be the overall victor. I have seen too many polls showing this which is why the race was called so early, that I hadn't even voted before it was over. I was secretly hoping that Haley would take a solid second place since she seemed to be the only candidate with any momentum that could challenge Trump. I haven't seen the results yet. (I'll do so after I publish this post), but just from our county results, I don't think it is likely that either she or DeSantis will come away with a clear cut second place finish. What this means of course is that they will both likely continue to be in the race and continue to dilute the (other than Trump) votes like in 2020, until he becomes the nominee again. But if Trump takes over 50% of the vote (as he did in our precinct), it really doesn't matter anyway.
Sigh.
The one positive point to the evening besides getting out and talking with my neighbors in spare moments, is that one of our top three national news organizations chose our caucus site to be on the national news. NBC even sent on of their national correspondents, Jacob Soboroff and crew there to record clips for appearing on the national news special on our caucus. Being somewhat star struck, I started taking a selfie of myself with him in the background but he saw what I was up to and mugged for the camera behind me. Afterwards, he even shook my hand. I won't show you that picture but I'll leave you with a screen grab of Mr. Soboroff during one of his many videos last night. Behind him is the area where all precincts check in initially and where my precinct, one of the larger ones, meets to do our voting later in the evening.
To outsiders it seems weird to declare your party affiliation long before the election. I do realize that you can do otherwise for the actual vote, but . . . well, it just seems weird.
ReplyDeleteBTW I don't usually comment on comments in my blogs, but I did yesterday because I had a teacher who would insert the r in warsh. You don't have to go back bc that is the gist of it.
I'm sure this is part of having a two party system and thus a need to narrow down the field when multiple candidates are vying for one position. My own election system is so complex, it has taken me years to grasp the various nuances of it and I'm sure other countries have similar complexities. I wish I was better versed in other election systems around the world but being American, I'm admittedly very me centered when it comes to politics.
DeleteThanks for letting me know. From experience, I know you rarely comment and so I have learned not to check. Others always comment and thus I always check back. So I appreciate your letting me know and although you gave the gist of your answer, I'll go back and read it just the same.
Thanks for the behind-the-scenes view of the Iowa process. It does seem kind of antiquated, but also reassuring in that the voting is run by "regular people" and not some machine or unknown outsiders. I get that some people like Trump, people who want to blow things up, stick it to "the man", and especially confound the coastal mainstream media and political establishment. What I don't get is why this is more than a few malcontents and anti-social outsiders. I don't get why half of the Republican party in Iowa feels this way. Oh well, my political views are pretty weird, too. I think gas prices should be HIGHER -- that would probably get me tarred and feathered in Iowa.
DeleteI don't understand his numbers either, at least this go around. In 2016, Cruz, Trump and Rubio finished within 4% of each other, so Trumps supporters were much smaller. Those numbers have obviously grown tremendously in the 8 years since. As much as I can guess from those I talk too, many loved his policies enough to overlook his character flaws and someone who polls shows can win over President Biden more easily, i.e. Haley, are too much of a wildcard to get behind.
DeleteI know y'all are "first in the nation" and I'm not dissing Iowa by saying this, but it baffles my how much coverage is placed on your caucuses given I don't consider your state particularly representative of the nation as a whole. I start paying closer attention after Super Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteI get that and I understand your feeling that way. Plus Iowa has a tendency to not pick a winner when it comes to Republicans anyway. (Maybe that is still the case?!) I do think there is a benefit to keeping Iowa as first in the nation. First, we do a fair amount of candidate weeding which saves all of those down the line a lot of phone calls and mailboxes stuffed with political ads. You can thank us for removing Ramaswamy and Christie from the ranks along with most likely Binkley and Hutchinson. Second, I do think we force the nation to see another side of politicians that they wouldn't see if say New Jersey was the first in the nation. Although we are a small minority compared to the country's population and not terribly diverse, it politicians can break through to us, they can probably break through to any state with more diverse populations. Finally, I think it is well known how to do well in Iowa and proceed to the rest of the nation. Should we change the order around and say California gets first in the nation status. I think you would see very different candidates and political races. That might be great and it might be terrifying. In some cases, dealing with a known evil is much better than dealing with a totally unknown and different style of campaign.
DeleteIf tomorrow they totally reform the process of determining who goes when for caucuses/primaries, I wouldn't be passionately opposed. I'm not sure I would be opposed at all. There certainly a lot of negatives to going first that sometimes last for 18 months prior to our caucus in the form of phone calls, junk mail, people banging on our doors and one politician after another rolling into town and disturbing the peace. The only real personal benefit I see for an individual like myself, living in a first in the nation caucus state, is that I have the opportunity to shake the hand of any candidate I desire. I think few in other states could say that. But I would give that up readily I think if somebody else wanted to take first in the nation status.
I used to love to caucus with the Dems when we still did that in Washington. I even drove my parents to it. They were for Clinton whereas I was for Obama, but I still let them ride with me. LOL I'm so worried that Trump will be elected. I'm not a huge Biden fan either but at least he's not crazy, ignorant or vindictive. And he appears to believe in the U.S. Constitution.
ReplyDeleteMany years ago, when I was much younger, I flirted with registering as a Democrat and attending a caucus. However at the time I was a bit intimidated by their process of standing in camps and aggressively trying to persuade those in camps with much lesser numbers to come to their side. Then through jobs, moves and just being stubborn, I just remained undeclared for nearly two decades before I decided I could do more good declaring a side even if I don't fully agree with them.
DeleteWhile not terrified, I'm not looking forward to another four more years of Trump either. Honestly, I think the best case scenario would be for Biden to win and Congress to remain politically gridlocked for another four more years until we can reset the field with some proper candidates. It doesn't solve any problems but probably wouldn't create any more new ones, other than the threat of an occasional government shutdown.
Used to be a proud Republican, but that ended with Reagan and has been unconscionable ever since, especially now.
ReplyDeleteOn one hand, political change is good. It evolves as we evolve and the world around us evolves. But at least to me as a RINO, the change experienced by the Republican party hasn't been for the best. Instead of sticking to the core tenants of fewer taxes and less government, they have branched out to pick sides on very divisive issues that has nothing to do with less government and in some cases, expands it.
DeleteThe Democrats in Hawaii have too much control and sway and the Republicans in Hawaii are a mess without direction or leadership. Both parties need to wake up and figure out how to remember that they are Americans first, rather than party people only.
ReplyDeleteTo some extent, I think that could be said for those of us on the mainland too. We are all Americans and I think there is a lot of middle ground to be had on many topics that today are to quote George Bush, "You are either with us or against us."
DeleteI agree with Honolulu Aunty. Sigh...
DeleteI like the idea of a caucus but don't like the media show that gets made of it. I would have to vote for Haley, too. I felt she did a good job in SC, but agree she's too much of a "yes" woman. I wish we had better candidates and hate that we'll have two 80 year olds to chose from
ReplyDeleteI think the media show is more because it is first and less to do with a caucus system that few understand anyway. I think the media would still make the circus even if we did a ho hum primary vote and were still first in the nation. The media is just starving for some political fat to chew and nothing provides more fat than statistical heavy election results. We should be good for a week until New Hampshire's primary is underway and then we are forgotten.
DeleteAll crooks...too bad there isn't someone worth voting for:)
ReplyDeleteThanks for explaining the caucus systems, Ed, much appreciated. I was wondering though, why there was a bit of chatter about democrats being encouraged to vote in the republican caucus to try and influence the candidate. Doesn't sound like that would actually be possible.
ReplyDeleteIt is definitely possible and likely to have happened in the one county Haley won, a very democratic county.
DeleteIn our state, you can register/change party right at the caucus site minutes before voting and I saw many doing just that. Most were likely first time voters or new to the area but I also got the sense from listening to conversations around me when we all get together to listen to speeches, that some of those near me were likely democrats. They were very unfamiliar with the entire process and didn't act like first time voters. It doesn't work when both parties are narrowing down several candidates as you are still only allowed to vote once.
But now that Iowa democrats have been banned from their first in the nation status, we may indeed see this more often now since the Democrats and Republicans no longer caucus on the same night. I'm not even sure how verification will even work to ensure everyone can only vote once in a caucus. There may be future changes to the same night registration rules.