Monday, March 7, 2016

A Political Election Cycle Unlike All Others

Just when I begin to think I have things figured out, along comes something totally out of left field that sets me back in my place. After the Iowa Caucus/Circus season ended, I pontificated that Trump would probably start fading away as the field narrowed and someone, perhaps Rubio, would start gaining momentum. I also though Cruz would fade away. I think I was wrong on all accounts though Rubio has gained some momentum, it certainly wasn't in the amount I expected.

So now here we sit with 25% of the states having spoken and it is starting to look like Trump might just be the nominee for the Republican party. Mathematically he doesn't have it all wrapped up yet but as even if the field narrows to two tomorrow, the remaining candidate will have to still garner 48 to 50% of all the remaining votes to prevent Trump from getting the required number outright and bring things to a contested convention, a first in over sixty years.

I'm not really scared if Trump does get the nomination and even if he gets elected to current occupant of the White House. He will have a Congress full of three year olds who refuse to play nicely with each other to deal with and that means little of significance will probably be accomplished. And that folks, in a world full of scary problems needing solutions, it the scary part. We will essentially be kicking the can down the road another four to eight years. Now normally I would be worried about how the rest of the world thinks of us for electing someone like Trump but I can't see how that view can possibly get any lower than it is now after the last two presidents.

Where I sit now, the one positive to come out of Trump getting the Republican nomination is that there would be an opening for a strong middle of the road Independent candidate to get into the race and really shake things up come November. It has been a long time since that has happened.

Remember when before we Iowans voted I was getting perhaps 20 phone calls a day and had an opportunity to shake the hands of about a dozen of the candidates if I had wanted too? Well yesterday my phone rang and I got to thinking, it has probably been a week or two since that had happened. Love it!


Kelly said...

I agree with you about it not being the end of the world no matter which candidate gets elected. Ideally, apart from "Executive Orders" (or whatever that's called, and the last two both did their share), the system of checks and balances kicks in, so it's not like Trump, Clinton, or whomever wins will be able to make great changes. Of course Congress isn't particularly a cooperative bunch, so that probably means even less change.

You're right... we've already lost so much credibility in the world with our last two presidents, so I'm not sure who could get elected and change that. I've been very disappointed with the Obama administration (not that I voted for him or expected much). Bush 43 started out okay and tried, but things spiraled out of his control. Who knows, maybe in part due to bad advisors. The best thing any president can do is to surround himself (herself) with good people then delegate authority. Perhaps that's why some folks like Trump. He's a businessman (despite those bankruptcies!!) and can delegate and manage people.

I'm not sure I can think of a decent moderate to jump into the race. Besides, historically third parties don't fare well.

Ed said...

Kelly - With the increasing abuse of Executive Orders, I guess one should be concerned who gets elected even if you know they won't get the support of Congress!

Bob said...

The biggest thing that concerns me is the Supreme Court appointments. Hillary, a lawyer herself, is likely to continue w the appointing of justices that make law rather than try to follow the Constitution. And like everything else, I just don't know what Trump might do. Until he decided to run for president, he was a Democrat!

Ed said...

Bob - We've definitely had a streak of law making Supreme Court justices. If I had to guess, Trump would nominate himself, his ego seems to be that big!